With a 31-28 record two months into the season, there’s little doubt the Milwaukee Brewers are outperforming their preseason expectations.
Their offense is still within the top ten in the league in nearly every category and what seemed to be an underwhelming starting rotation has turned the narrative from an area of weakness to a source of strength.
Unfortunately, the bullpen hasn’t seen the same results. Despite being comprised of many of the same faces that helped the team rank 12th in the league just a season ago, there have been significant falters this time around — a majority of the them from the team’s newest members.
After signing a $5.35 million contract this offseason, Neftali Feliz, who was a shoo-in for the Brewers closer role, has already been removed from his ninth-inning duties, thanks in large part to unsightly numbers across the board. He now owns a 5.40 earned run average (6.38 FIP) and has given up 2.2 home runs and 4.7 walks per nine — setting new career worsts, even after last year’s significant downward trend.
Jared Hughes, a career 2.94 ERA six-year veteran with the Pittsburgh Pirates who signed as a free agent days before the season opened, has also experienced inopportune setbacks. While his walk and home runs rates aren’t nearly as bad as Feliz’ (4.2 BB/9, 0.4 HR/9), Hughes has been giving up hits frequently (10.4 H/9), leading to a 1.615 WHIP that not only damages his run prevention, but leaves runners on for those behind him to clean up.
Oliver Drake, who was acquired from the Baltimore Orioles just a week into the season, has also been victimized by an unkind walk rate (4.6 BB/9). His strikeout numbers (10.5 K/9) and sub-1.0/9 home run rate do help to add a bit of redemptive value, but they are also contrasted by the bane of infinite innings — three times this season, Drake has been unable to record a single out and given up earned runs in the process.
Carlos Torres, who was a stalwart of the bullpen just last season, may be one of the biggest contributors to late-inning failure. With a team-leading 30 1/3 innings of relief, Torres sports a 4.45 ERA and 1.648 WHIP, a far cry from his career-best 2.73 ERA and near career-best 1.154 WHIP last year. And his regression is not solely rooted in one category. Since 2017, Torres has seen a rise in hits (11.0, up from 7.1), home runs (1.2, up from 0.9) and walks (3.9, up from 3.3) while his strikeouts have fallen (7.1, down from 8.5).
But the bullpen’s downturn has not gone without inaction. Jhan Marinez, another staple of the 2016 Brewers bullpen, has already become an early casualty. After a meteoric rise in hits (12.4 H/9, up from 9.2), walks (5.9, up from 3.2) and home runs (1.1, up from 0.5) led to a 5.10 ERA and 2.040 WHIP, he was designated for assignment in mid-May before being selected off waivers by Pittsburgh.
In all, despite leading the league in save opportunities with 30, the bullpen has officially blown 11, leaving them tied for the second most in baseball — and that doesn’t even account for the numerous occasions where runs that were given up changed the outcome of the game in non-save situations, nor the offensive production that has made giving up so many runs a less significant factor to the team’s record.
Those results are fully manifesting on the stat sheet. As a relief unit, the Brewers have given up the eighth-most earned runs (97), the third-most hits (203), and lead the league in walks (105), plus own the third-highest opposing on-base percentage (.345) and are tied for the worst strikeout to walk ratio in the majors (1.91).
Of course, digging deeper also reveals a few keys as to why they’re suffering such a flipped script compared to last season. One of the largest contributors likely stems from their intense usage — Milwaukee, at 214 innings, is only second to the Cincinnati Reds in total relief innings pitched (229 2/3).
It also doesn’t help that the bullpen’s numbers as a whole have been skewed by two who are no longer pitching with the organization. Marinez gave up 10 earned runs in 16 2/3 innings before departing and Tommy Milone allowed seven in seven innings of relief before being designated for assignment.
But it’s not all just bad news either. There seem to be remedies on the horizon that could help stabilize the relief core as the season progresses.
The most important of which stems directly from the starting rotation, which seems to be having a resurgence thanks to the steady progress of Zach Davies, the return of Junior Guerra and recent success of Chase Anderson and Jimmy Nelson, both of whom look primed for career years. Any improvement in the rotation’s ability to go deeper into games could spell relief for the relief core.
And despite the recent inefficiency and injury of Matt Garza, he still remains a potential trade chip at the midseason deadline, one that could make room for top prospects like Josh Hader and Brandon Woodruff or 40-man replacement starters Paolo Espino (4-1, 3.26 ERA in Triple-A), Taylor Jungmann (2-2, 3.70 ERA between Double-A and Triple-A) or Brent Suter (3-1, 4.32 ERA in Triple-A).
Young right-handers Jacob Barnes and Corey Knebel have both capitalized on their high upside, putting together excellent seasons. Rob Scahill has also been reliable, helping to form a trio of success to build upon.
Collectively, Torres, Drake and Hughes make up just over $3.5 million in payroll and at 34, 30 and 31 respectively, all on one-year contracts (although Drake does have two more years of team control), the trio is easily expendable through trade or designation, or in Hughes’ case, optioning (one remaining). Any movement in that regard could make room for 40-man option Tyler Cravy (3.24 ERA, 19 K, 10 BB, 25 IP) or provide an opportunity for Jungmann, Suter or Espino, should the team choose to shift them into the bullpen.
Outside of those already on the roster, Brewers fans could also see the return of Michael Blazek (1.95 ERA, 31 K, 18 BB, 32 1/3 IP) or Wei-Chung Wang (2.05 ERA, 19 K, 19 BB, 26 1/3 IP).
While there is still time for redemption, given that only one-third of the season has passed, what’s more promising is that there seem to be solutions to the team’s current pitching problems. Provided the active nature of both general manager David Stearns and manager Craig Counsell, these struggles may be more likely to become a bump in the road than a long term hindrance.
Realistically, there is no easy fix. The bullpen may continue to struggle until either improvements or changes are made, but one thing is becoming seemingly inevitable — help is on the way.
Jonathan Powell is the Managing Editor of Outside Pitch MLB and the Milwaukee Brewers writer. Follow him on Twitter @jonathannashhh.
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