Despite the excitement generated by the recent arrival of long-awaited No. 1 prospect Orlando Arcia, the Milwaukee Brewers will not be calling up their top pitching prospect left-hander Josh Hader for a spot start Friday night against the Seattle Mariners.
Instead, they will be calling on LHP Brent Suter to stand in for the injured Chase Anderson, who was drilled in the left thigh by a Kris Bryant line drive in Tuesday’s game against the Chicago Cubs.
It will be the first time a starting left-hander has taken the mound for Milwaukee since Tom Gorzelanny in nearly three years, since 2013.
To fans, the news may not be as exciting as seeing another top prospect entering the majors, but the numbers and overall progress favor Suter by a considerable margin.
The tall 26-year-old lefty is no fireballer, largely throwing in the high-80s, but his effectiveness is undeniable, especially considering he’s been pitching in the worst place for developing minor-league arms.
With Triple-A Colorado Springs this season, Suter has put together a solid campaign. In spite of possessing a mediocre 6-6 record, he has still managed a highly-stable 3.50 earned run average with 75 strikeouts and only 14 walks in 110 2/3 innings.
Although it’s his first full year at this level, the results from last year were just as supportive of the team’s decision, as he went 3-1 and posted a 3.31 ERA with 19 strikeouts and 6 walks in 35 1/3 innings.
Even with a higher walks plus hits per inning pitched rate in 2016 compared to 2015 – 1.29 and 1.16 respectively – he has shown a considerable increase in his strikeout to walk ratio, increasing it from 3.17 to 5.36. More than all else, it helps to exemplify an obvious improvement in his overall command and control in a park well-known for its depletion of pitch movement.
Hader, on the other hand, despite being the team’s top pitching prospect (No. 4 overall), has struggled in Triple-A this season, posting a 5.30 ERA and 1.46 WHIP on his way to a 0-5 record (11 GS, 56 IP).
Considering the numbers he managed in Double-A Biloxi, it’s no wonder that he’s the top arm in the farm system. In the same number of games, he achieved an incredible 0.95 ERA and 1.00 WHIP with 73 strikeouts and 19 walks in just one more inning (57).
The good news is, the work that Hader produced in his first two seasons at Double-A in 2015 looks somewhat similar to what he’s done so far in Triple A. In Corpus Christi, while still in the Houston Astros organization, his first year (2014) was even uglier than 2016, as he managed only a 6.30 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP with a near-career low 1.50 K/BB ratio.
The following season, in 2015, he improved considerably, bringing his ERA down to a reliable 3.03 with a 1.17 WHIP and a 3.40 K/BB ratio to match, between Corpus Christ and Biloxi. The pattern seems relatively consistent throughout his career at each level, indicating one thing beyond than all else –adjustment.
So although Hader may take more time to acclimate to the higher-level talent of Triple-A, let alone the hurdles of Security Service Field’s physics, his history has proven that he is more than capable of overcoming obstacles.
Luckily for the Brewers, although maybe not so lucky for the fans, especially those without patience, the Brewers have the one element that Hader will need to succeed – time.
Even if fans won’t yet see the arrival of the next top pitching prospect this week, there’s still a chance they may this year. And if not, there’s no reason not to be excited for Suter, one of the team’s best pitchers to come out of the minors this year.
Fans should always remind themselves that being a top prospect doesn’t guarantee success. Those who are unforeseen and exist as only mere blips on the baseball radar can often be just as talented, if not more so, and come with even better stories, lest we forget the names Junior Guerra and Zach Davies.
Jonathan Powell is the Managing Editor of Outside Pitch MLB. Follow him on Twitter @JP_OPSN.
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