In Game One of the National League Division Series, two things were proved.
The first is that power still matters, as exemplified by Javier Baez‘ solo shot that ended up being the game-winning run. Even with six hits, the San Francisco Giants couldn’t small-ball their way to a victory. Baez and the Chicago Cubs needed only three hits to strike gold.
The second is that previous experience can mean absolutely nothing.
Johnny Cueto has an absolute ton of experience pitching against the Cubs from his days with the Cincinnati Reds and boasts a career 3.24 earned run average against them, including a recent game on Sept. 4 when he threw seven innings of one-run ball, striking out five and walking one – the Giants lost the game, 2-3.
Jon Lester has also historically pitched well against the Giants, going 4-1 with a 2.25 ERA. This season, however, he’s had only one of his two starts against them reflect that. During a May 21 start, Lester gave up five earned runs on six hits while walking three and striking out only one in 2 2/3 innings. In his matchup on Sept. 2, he gave up only one earned run on three hits while walking two and striking out four in a complete-game victory.
From the eye test, Cueto was the better pitcher of the two in Game One, recording 10 strikeouts while allowing only three hits and no walks compared to Lester, who recorded only five strikeouts and gave up five hits (and no walks).
Even though Cueto was second-best in home runs per nine innings in 2016 (0.615) and pitched Baez inside, outside, and down, one slip left a hanger in the heart of his wheelhouse and it determined the game. In previous matchups, Cueto struck out Baez in four of his six at-bats and never allowed a hit.
In Game Two, similar factors will be coming into play.
Despite ending the regular season with the best earned run average in all of baseball (2.13), Kyle Hendricks has not pitched the Giants particularly well. He has faced them three times in his career and the results have not been promising, as he stands with a 1-2 record and a 4.32 ERA with 12 strikeouts and an uncharacteristically high eight walks.
Brandon Belt has historically hit Hendricks well, going 3-for-7 lifetime with a home run and a pair of RBI. The rest of the starting lineup match up similarly well, as they boast a strong .295/.354/.500 slash line against him.
Jeff Samardzija, since leaving the Cubs at the end of the 2014 season, has only faced his former team twice but has fared far worse than Hendricks by a wide margin. In those two games, he gave up nine earned runs (including three home runs) while walking five and striking out eight in 10 total innings, amounting to an 8.10 ERA and 1.900 walks plus hits per inning rate.
Of course, that’s only taking into consideration players that were Cubs starters when Samardzija faced them. He’s also faced Dexter Fowler numerous times on other occasions and Fowler seems to have a knack for doing damage against him. He’s gone 7-for-24 against the 6-foot-5-inch right-hander, including a double, two triples, and a home run, hitting .292/.346/.625 lifetime against him.
Although likely to face Samardzija (if he stays in long enough) as a pinch hitter, Chris Coughlin has also hit him well, going 4-for-11 with a double and two home runs (five RBI) while batting .364/.364/1.000.
Of course, just like Game One, all of these numbers could mean absolutely nothing. But what does have some meaning is that the Giants are trying to continue their even-year dynasty while the Cubs are trying to party like it’s 1908. That being the case, it will undoubtedly make for some entertaining baseball.
The NLDS Game Two kicks off in Wrigley Field Saturday, October 8, at 7:08 PM CST.
Jonathan Powell is the Managing Editor of Outside Pitch MLB and the Milwaukee Brewers writer. Follow him on Twitter @jonathannashhh.
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