Milwaukee Brewers sign Tommy Milone: Good or bad move?

Milwaukee Brewers sign left-handed pitcher Tommy Milone to a one-year contract

If there is one thing Milwaukee Brewers general manager David Stearns has a serious knack for, it’s unconventional thinking.

And fans and aficionados alike need no further evidence than the non-tendering of the National League’s home run leader, Chris Carter, and the signing of Korean Baseball All-Star Eric Thames. Although it seems that these types of transactions are preparing Brewers fans for nearly anything lacking surface-level logic, the team’s recent signing of left-handed pitcher Tommy Milone may test the trust the fans have placed in their new GM.

Although fans and devotees are still limited in their access to the analytic depths of major league scouting, this move seems to provide as many questions as it does answers. It seems there are some things Milone can offer Milwaukee, but then again, at least as far as history has shown, it also seems like there is a lot that he can’t offer as well.

Milone spent the better part of the last six years pitching at the major league level, a majority of which were split between the Oakland Athletics and his most recent team, the Minnesota Twins. He was a serviceable pitcher in Oakland and posted a 31-22 record, 3.84 earned run average and a 1.263 walks plus hits per inning.

Unfortunately, he experienced a bit of a downturn after arriving in Minnesota. Outside of having his ERA and WHIP inflate to 4.79 and 1.448 respectively, his peripherals also took a turn for the worst. While Milone was never much of a strikeout pitcher to begin with, his strikeout rate fell from 6.6 per nine innings in Oakland, to 6.3 in Minnesota, while his walk rate jumped from 2.1 to 2.8 – although that’s still pretty decent for a starting pitcher. Even though both statistics were somewhat skewed by a rough organizational transition in 2014 that resulted in poor numbers all-around, his 2016 numbers didn’t seem to fare much better either.

Just this past season, he collected a 5.71 ERA and 1.529 WHIP while his walk rate (2.9 BB/9), home run rate (1.9 HR/9), and hit rate (10.9 H/9) each respectively jumped to the second-highest of his career.

While Stearns may be able to write off the struggles as Milone being the victim of bad luck and a bad team, a closer look at his numbers seem to reveal a much different story.

According to fielding independent pitching (FIP), which examines a pitcher’s overall effectiveness without the influence of his defense, it seems that Milone and his ERA were actually beneficiaries of good luck. In four of his five seasons in which he pitched at least 69 innings, Milone actually possessed a FIP higher than his ERA, indicating that his earned run average should have been higher in every one of those seasons – by an average of at least 0.3. In Stearns’ defense, last season was one in which his 5.71 ERA was above his 5.54 FIP.

But it’s not just his abilities that seem to be in question. His health is an issue of concern as well, as he’s hit the disabled list each of the last two years, both for issues with his throwing arm, and he’s only once in his career pitched over 157 innings in a season (190 IP, 2012).

Although the details of the signing are low-risk with a non-guaranteed contract of $1.25 million in base salary plus incentives, it seems that Milone has little to offer in the bigger picture.

Realistically, he does at least bring some things to the table. First, his lefty arm would be a helpful addition to an all-right-handed starting rotation. Even if he ends up in the bullpen, he would at least be able to stretch innings and again provide the team a left-handed option in a righty-heavy roster – unfortunately, he doesn’t profile as a lefty-specialist. Hypothetically, he if rebounds, he could also make for a halfway decent trade chip once Josh Hader is ready to surface, or if the team chooses to experiment with fellow-lefty Brent Suter back in the rotation.

All in all, it seems like Tommy Milone is more of a placeholder on the 40-man roster, which is now filled, than any truly viable option on the mound. Given that he’s out of minor-league options, he will easily profile as being one of the least flexible additions to a team that seems wholly intent on versatility.